Name: Wildfire Likelihood (UW CIG)

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Description: A wildfire likelihood value of 0.50 means that there is a 50% chance that any year in that time period will have climate and fuel conditions that are favorable for wildfire. The likelihood of wildfire is simulated using a fire process model. An increased likelihood of climate and fuel conditions conducive to wildfire indicates greater potential for wildfire danger to damage infrastructure, interrupt businesses, and affect public health and well-being. Darker represent larger probabilities of wildfire conditions. Values shown are the median of multiple climate model projections. Much of the increased likelihood for wildfire is in eastern Washington, with only slight changes in western Washington. Potential Impacts ··· Cultural Resources and Practices: more frequent wildfires have the potential to damage cultural and historical sites, buildings, and cultural resources. More frequent wildfires can also reduce access to culturally important sites and resources for Northwest Tribes. Economic Development: More frequent wildfires are expected to affect businesses and economic development through more interruptions and closures of businesses and recreation areas due to wildfires and poor air quality. More wildfire could lead to higher insurance premiums or more difficulty insuring properties. Ecosystems: More frequent wildfires have the potential to reduce timber, non-timber forest products, carbon storage, and forest habitat for some wildlife. Wildfires also increase establishment of invasive species. More frequent wildfires have the potential to increase runoff and sediment to streams, which can reduce aquatic habitat quality. Emergency Management: more frequent wildfires will require more response from emergency management services, increasing demand on resources and costs. Built Environment and Energy: More frequent wildfires have the potential to affect energy transmission by damaging infrastructure and interrupting transmission and distribution. More frequent wildfires are expected to cause property damage and loss. Poor air quality due to wildfire smoke could increase demand for air filtration systems in buildings. Transportation: more frequent wildfires, and related smoke, can disrupt travel, increase road closures and delay construction projects. Wildfire smoke has the potential to affect labor in the transportation sector because of health effects on outdoor laborers. More roadside brush fires can create safety hazards and disrupt transportation. Waste Management: More frequent wildfires have the potential to generate greater amounts of debris and waste. More waste will strain municipal cleanup and refuse capacity. Water Resources: More frequent wildfires have the potential to damage water distribution infrastructure and reduce water quality in reservoirs due to more runoff, erosion, and turbidity. Changes in water quality could increase the need for water treatment and filtration. Zoning: More frequent wildfires are expected to increase damage to homes and infrastructure and displace residents.

Service Item Id: 8ad33bcb2f1e4f70893cb0771becf168

Copyright Text: Raymond, C., M. Rogers, 2022. Climate Mapping for a Resilient Washington. Prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle and Research Data & Computing Services, University of Idaho, Moscow.

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